Monday, April 14, 2014

Ukraine on 2014 04 14


The protesters in eastern Ukraine are taking over government buildings.

The Ukrainian government in Kiev gave a deadline to the pro-Russian protesters to lay down their arms and avoid prosecution.  Unless the protesters leave the government buildings, the Ukraine government is going to respond using anti-terrorist methods (which sounds like the military to me).
The deadline has passed and no pro-Russian protester is surrendering.

Russian troops are on the border of Ukraine.  We know the Russian military took over Crimea when unmarked military marched in and took over government buildings.  They appear to be poised to do the same in Eastern Ukraine.

There are scheduled peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, European Union, and the United States.  Russia has said they will not participate in the talks if Ukraine tries to militarily get the protesters out of the government buildings.

If Ukraine goes ahead with a military solution, Russia will pull out of the peace talks and send their military into Ukraine to protect the protesters who want to be under Russian authority.
If Ukraine doesn't go ahead with a military solution, the Russian protesters will stay in the government buildings and effectively take over on behalf of Russia.

I'm not a foreign policy expert and I don't know how these people think, but it seems to me that Ukraine is screwed.

Well - they're only screwed if its important to them to have eastern Ukraine as part of their country.
Otherwise they could just let it go


Disney's Frozen "Let It Go" Sequence Performed by Idina Menzel on Disney Video

Update:  4/14/2014 afternoon Pacific time.
Possibly, Ukraine will offer to change Ukraine's government to a federation, which would weaken Kiev and strengthen eastern and southern Ukraine...just what Putin hoped for.
See this Slate article by Fred Kaplan.

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