Friday, June 19, 2009

Nonviolent Protests in Iran

The protestors...

vs. the theocracy.

In his Friday sermon, Khameini said the protests should cease, the election is over, Ahmadinjad won. Further, if there are continued protests and rallies, the government will restore order using violent measures. And..."If there is any bloodshed, leaders of the protests will be held directly responsible,"

Of course, I'd like to see the Iranian government swtich from a theocracy to a democracy. But, should the people stand up to threats of bodily harm?
There are so many levels to the protests, I'm not sure what the right answer is.
a. divisions between the clerical elite - specifically Rafsanjani and Khameini.
b. some of the elder reformers/protestors and government supporters have a shared history from the 1979 revolution.
c. the election was the reason for initial protests, but the story has outgrown the election now. The people are protesting how their government is treating them - today and in the past 10 years at least (a student uprising in 1999).
d. the media is agog over the stunning events - does their fascination encourage the potestors to continue beyond where they might have gone without any narration?

Is now the time to fight, or is now the time to wait to fight another day?
I can't tell from where I sit.
If the time is now, I hope they're all in it together so the numbers are so big the government won't be able to follow through on its threats.
If the time is not now, I hope the impatient people can be held back so things don't get out of control.

Nonviolent protest is the most effective weapon in the world. But, it takes an enormous amount of courage. It also requires a great organization and a level of respect and control from the top down and back again.
If they have the organization, if they have the leader, they could pull this off.
If not, the fight will wait for another day.

If the whole thing fades away for now, what will the Iranian government be like to deal with? What will their attitude in the world be? Defensive? Aggressive? Or will they retreat a bit to heal their wounds?

I don't think the Iranian people have an easy choice to make tomorrow.

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