Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts

Friday, June 19, 2009

Nonviolent Protests in Iran

The protestors...

vs. the theocracy.

In his Friday sermon, Khameini said the protests should cease, the election is over, Ahmadinjad won. Further, if there are continued protests and rallies, the government will restore order using violent measures. And..."If there is any bloodshed, leaders of the protests will be held directly responsible,"

Of course, I'd like to see the Iranian government swtich from a theocracy to a democracy. But, should the people stand up to threats of bodily harm?
There are so many levels to the protests, I'm not sure what the right answer is.
a. divisions between the clerical elite - specifically Rafsanjani and Khameini.
b. some of the elder reformers/protestors and government supporters have a shared history from the 1979 revolution.
c. the election was the reason for initial protests, but the story has outgrown the election now. The people are protesting how their government is treating them - today and in the past 10 years at least (a student uprising in 1999).
d. the media is agog over the stunning events - does their fascination encourage the potestors to continue beyond where they might have gone without any narration?

Is now the time to fight, or is now the time to wait to fight another day?
I can't tell from where I sit.
If the time is now, I hope they're all in it together so the numbers are so big the government won't be able to follow through on its threats.
If the time is not now, I hope the impatient people can be held back so things don't get out of control.

Nonviolent protest is the most effective weapon in the world. But, it takes an enormous amount of courage. It also requires a great organization and a level of respect and control from the top down and back again.
If they have the organization, if they have the leader, they could pull this off.
If not, the fight will wait for another day.

If the whole thing fades away for now, what will the Iranian government be like to deal with? What will their attitude in the world be? Defensive? Aggressive? Or will they retreat a bit to heal their wounds?

I don't think the Iranian people have an easy choice to make tomorrow.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Viva La Revolution!


I'm not a good judge of what makes a revolution.
When the communist countries started falling in the late 80's (?) I thought it was just a mirage.
When Tiananmen Square happened in the early 90's (?) I thought it was going to overhaul the Chinese government.

So, it is with cautious hope and optimism that I watch the events in Iran unfold. I would like to see an Iran the US can work with, that isn't so restrictive to women, and an Iran that doesn't support (financially and otherwise) fear-inducing groups.

This could be the people's moment. Even if it doesn't turn out to be, they've shown great courage and strength. Their efforts won't be in vain. They've planted a seed at the very least.
But, it is the Iranian People's moment. Not ours to influence.
Some people in America (Bill Kristol, Pence in the House et al) are trying to shame President Obama into officially siding with the supporters of opposition candidate Moussavi. I really can't see how they could have a more knee-jerk reaction than that. I think 'jerk' is the operative word in that sentence.
Revolution comes from within - both personally, and as a nation. Leave them be. They know we support democracy. They know we're watching.

Strangely, the fact that the Iranian government knows we're watching makes it odd to see the government acting with such a heavy hand. They made themselves look guilty of rigging the election by responding with violence and cracking down on the opposition and media reports. That wasn't very smart. Even I would have known that much.

Its interesting to see many of the rally signs, for both Moussavi and Ahmadinejad are written in English.

A key point I've been hearing a lot about is that Moussavi has views that aren't entirely different from Ahmadinejad's views. And since the Supreme Leader is the one who wields the most power, the 'revolution' of Moussavi won't be much of one.

However, there has been news today that the Council of Experts (who select the Supreme Leader) are meeting today and THAT could be the real revolution. And, it would mean there could be real change in Iran.

Given that Moussavi wasn't all that different from Ahmadinejad, it seems the people are really protesting how the government handled the election and Moussavi is an accidental beneficiary. I wonder what made the reformers side with Moussvi? Is it becuase he's the least worse candidate? Or is he worthy of being a reformer?

I think the bottom line is that the protestors are fed up with a government that lies and isolates the country and tries to manipulate and threaten their own citizens.
Moussavi as the President must be incidental.

For more information about the Iranian election aftermath, go to...
Huffington Post - Liveblogging the Uprising

Sunday, June 14, 2009

And then there's Iran...

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, here at a Sunday news conference, said elections were 'soundest of their kind.' (from CNN)


Here is video of protesters in Tehran on Saturday June 13, or Sunday June 14.
The protests are broken up by police on motorcycles. One of the police motorcycles goes down. We next see the motorcycle on fire, and the police person being led away - presumably by protesters who are trying to give him medical aid.




There was plenty of talk in 2000 and especially 2004 of fraudulent elections in the United States. If, in 2004, those of us who couldn't believe there wasn't fraud in that election had taken to the streets (on an equal scale as Iran, proportional to our population), it could have looked exactly like this video.

Go here to see pictures of protesters in Salem, Oregon from 2004. Not quite as many people.


Alleged fraud in America vs Alleged fraud in Iran. In 2004 we hoped we'd survive the next four years of Bush so we could get another chance to change the tone of the government.
Maybe we should have gone out in the streets.

Something to think about...in a country that values the 'rule of law' is it best to peacefully protest election fraud in the streets and risk violence (because you can't know how people will respond or be assured of the purity of everyone's motives). Or is it better to allow the fraud to stand and then work to make change for the next election?

In any event - I support the Iranian protesters and I think Ahmadinejad is a loser (both literally and metaphorically). His responses to the protests reveal a gap in what he says and the reality we can see. That's the most obvious symptom of a corrupt and illegitimate government.

Update: The video below is from CNN - a discussion of Iran on Fareed Zakaria's GPS. I've heard Reza Aslan discuss Iran before and like how he explains the politics and motivations of Iran. This is a good discussion that also includes Afshin Molavi and Nicholas Burns.

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Quick Thoughts...

1. I enjoyed my birthday yesterday - it was exactly the level of celebration I wanted...people at work said Happy Birthday, we exchanged hugs, and MFJ came over for the evening. Mom called in am, Maggie in afternoon, Sis in pm, niece a little later. And I'm sure my nephew thought about it...:)

2. I'm sorry that Ahmadinejad won the election in Iran. It reminds me of our 2004 election when those of us who didn't like Bush couldn't imagine that people would really vote for him a SECOND time! Four more years of hateful, negative rhetoric will get old eventually. I hope it won't be too late.

3. The leadership in North Korea is seemingly off its rocker. I thought we were trying to ignore them, but that makes them more agitated. In response to North Korea's own decision to test nuclear weapons and ballistic missilles, the Security Council announced new sanctions yesterday. It completely feeds into North Korea's false narrative that everyone wants to hurt them. Which makes them feel justified when they announce they're going to "weaponize" their remaining supply of plutonium in addition to begin enriching uranium in order to make nuclear weapons. And if anyone crosses them it will be a declaration of war.
I'm not alone in thinking North Korea is demonstrating some mental illness am I? I feel bad for the people because they've been isolated and infected by the mental illness as well so they aren't in a position to stop the crazies at the top

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Negotiating with Iran about nuclear weapons

I'm concerned that I'll look back on this in a year or two and recognize these as the final days, weeks, months before everything changed. I don't want that to happen. And I don't want it said by the media that no one noticed.

I learned a couple things from this article
1. Iran was speaking to representatives from France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China, and the United States. I'm glad Russia and China were involved.
2. This was the meeting in which the Iranians would give their ANSWER to a proposal presented to them last month. It would have been more meaningful to have the US at that meeting.
3. The United States has given them a two week deadline to respond formally. Germany, Russia, and China aren't willing to be so definitive.
4. The group of 6 wanted Iran to stop enriching uranium. I don't know, it doesn't seem like negotiating when someone tells you - this is nonnegotiable - and all you do is keep presenting them new things to do the supposedly nonnegotiable item. I get the feeling they're serious about this 'nonnegotiable' status, people. Why don't you figure out what they will negotiate on? It can't be the nuclear weapons we're opposed to because other countries have it. Its that we don't trust them - because of what they say about Israel. So, why not negotiate on that?
5. I think it was a little creepy that the Iran guy said "it was a very beautiful endeavor" and "beautiful to behold". There must be a cultural context that I don't understand. Combine that with the EU's negotiator saying the Iranians were evasive and wouldn't give a direct answer, and the Iranians come across as sneaky and villainous, to me.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/20/world/middleeast/20nuke.html

GENEVA — International talks on Iran’s nuclear ambitions ended in deadlock on Saturday, despite the Bush administration’s decision to reverse policy and send a senior American official to the table for the first time.
The presence of William J. Burns, the under secretary of state for political affairs, was one of the most important encounters between Iran and the United States since relations were severed nearly three decades ago. And it was part of a rare show of unity among the six negotiating partners — the United States, France, Britain, Germany, Russia and China — who pressed Iran to accept compromise.
But Iran responded with a written document that failed to address the main issue: international demands that it stop enriching uranium. And Iranian diplomats reiterated before the talks that they considered the issue nonnegotiable.
Specifically, the world powers wanted Iran to accept a formula known as “freeze-for-freeze” to break the deadlock. Under the formula, Iran would not add to its nuclear program, and the United States and other powers would not seek new international sanctions for six weeks to pave the way for formal negotiations. The proposal was originally offered to Iran last year and presented again to it last month as part of a new proposal to ultimately give Iran economic and political incentives if it stops producing enriched uranium.
But officials involved in Saturday’s negotiations said that when they repeatedly pressed the Iranians to say whether they could accept the idea, the question was evaded every time.
“We still didn’t get the answer we were looking for,” the European Union foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, said at a news conference after several hours of talks, held in Geneva’s City Hall.
Mr. Solana said the Iranians were given two weeks to formally respond to the proposal before it would be withdrawn.
At the news conference, Saeed Jalili, Iran’s chief negotiator, refused to answer whether Iran would accept a freeze of its uranium enrichment program, however temporary. But he called the negotiating process a “very beautiful endeavor” with a result that he hoped would eventually be “beautiful to behold.”
Mr. Burns did not speak privately with Mr. Jalili. But in a brief statement in the morning meeting, he said that the United States was serious in its support for the six-power process and serious that Iran must suspend its production of enriched uranium, the State Department said.
He told his negotiating partners after the talks that the United States would push for new punitive sanctions at the United Nations Security Council in September, one participant in the meeting said.
Saturday’s meeting at Geneva’s City Hall was one of the most important public encounters between an Iranian and an American official since relations were halted after the American Embassy was seized in Tehran in 1979.
Other authorized meetings have occurred. Madeleine K. Albright, as secretary of state, for example, once sat at the same table with then Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi and other emissaries at the United Nations to discuss Afghanistan. Colin L. Powell, as secretary of state, once shook Mr. Kharrazi’s hand. American and Iranian officials have met episodically in Baghdad to discuss Iraq’s security.
But Saturday’s meeting was the highest-level session between the countries during the Bush administration, which once branded Iran part of an “axis of evil” and has not ruled out military action against Iran because of its nuclear ambitions.
It comes as the Bush administration, in its final months, has told some of its closest allies that the United States was moving forward with a plan to establish an American diplomatic presence in Tehran for the first time since the rupture in bilateral relations.
But for some, it is hard to understand why the Americans have made a diplomatic gesture with Mr. Burns’s participation at this time. America’s negotiating partners, particularly Britain, had wanted an American presence when they traveled to Tehran last month to present an enhanced package of incentives. That moment, officials said, would have been meaningful and more logical.
Instead, Mr. Burns came to the table when the Iranians were giving their reply, and there had never been a strong signal that it was going to be different from the past.
Despite the shift in American willingness to talk, one point of policy clearly has not changed: the Bush administration wants to avoid the impression that it is negotiating with Iran before it suspends its production of enriched uranium, which can be used to make electricity or fuel bombs.
Even the subject of a joint photograph was one of dispute. The only photo accepted by the American side was one with all parties at the table. The Americans objected to the idea of a photo of Mr. Solana and Mr. Jalili at a joint news conference with Mr. Burns and the other participants standing behind them.
Complicating the diplomacy was the fact that before Saturday’s talks, the six powers were not united on a joint strategy on how to proceed. The American delegation had told its partners that Mr. Burns’s appearance was a one-time event and that Iran had two weeks to decide whether to accept the “freeze-for-freeze” formula.
Germany, Russia and China, by contrast, argued that there should be time to explore the negotiating track with Iran.
There were other disagreements among the six powers as well. France and Britain have argued that there should be a precise definition of what the Iranians would have to freeze to open the way to formal talks.
But those disagreements evaporated during the talks with Iran. The six powers presented a united front in pushing the Iranians to give a clear answer on whether they were willing to make the good-faith gesture of halting new nuclear activity to pave the way for formal talks.